Answers; CAMPAIGN MANAGEMENT Exam

[Frank Bellamy, MAP Masters of Applied Politics]

Campaign Management I
Political Science 3700: 470/570
University of Akron
Fall 2006
Frank Bellamy, Student
Dr. Daniel Coffey, Instructor
Midterm Exam
Due: Tuesday October 31st, 2006

Short Answers;

QUESTION 1)According to Shea and Burton, what are four elements of old style campaigning and how have they changed? 

1. New Players,  2. New Incentives,  3. New Tactics,  4. New Resources

The changes ushered in by the New Style approaches to campaigning were coupled with the advent of the need for more money and the evolution of technology in politics (Daniel Shea and Michael Burton, 2001).

(1). New Players as an element took hold as the political party nominating reforms removed this historical power from party control.  Potential candidates discovered that money and creativity was more powerful than party endorsements in order to win elections. The increased effectiveness of broadcast media [TV & Radio] to enter more individual homes allowed the well funded candidate access to the electorate that was previously granted only by the political party.  This new candidate access via the media resulted in him/her to be viewed and assesses as a product for sale.  This new presentation for candidates created opportunities for professional in public relations and product marketing who are now referred to as political consultant (Daniel Shea and Michael Burton, Pg. 6, 2001).

(2). New Incentives would be the influx of money for direct and tangible uses for political advertising, consulting services and New Style electioneering methods.  The past [Old Style] incentives would have been; "Party organization controlled the reins of government-regulating patronage disbursement and managing government contracts" (Daniel Shea and Michael Burton, Pg. 8, 2001).

(3). New Tactics would be the application of New Style electioneering practices that would involve communicating, assessing and cultivating the electorate and candidate supporters.  These new tactics are mostly technology driven and advanced to support candidate or opponent survey research, polling, direct mailing, voter targeting, fundraising, voter list development, internet related electioneering, all types media advertising and all other political campaign activities (Daniel Shea and Michael Burton, Pg. 8, 2001).       

(4). New Resources reflects the importance of money to political campaigns in that money is proven to be able to buy the things that can win elections.  The political donor and the political fundraiser became the sources for attracting this New Resource.  The New Style political consultant began to place higher values on the need for political cash over individual volunteerism.  The New Style political campaigns became less party/candidate centered to more consultant centered campaigns (Daniel Shea and Michael Burton, Pg. 9, 2001).
     

QUESTION 2)What are the primary sources of error in survey research? Please describe how these factors can influence the results of a poll, and how researchers can fix (or the extent to which they can be fixed) these problems.

The primary sources of error in survey research are; Measurement Errors, Specification Errors, Statistical Errors/ Sampling Errors and Instrument Errors/Sequence of polling questions Error (Daniel Shea and Michael Burton, Pg. 105, 2001; Daniel Coffey, CM-I, 2006).

(1). Measurement Errors or mechanical errors occur when the respondent's answer is recorded and/or transcribed incorrectly by the interviewer; hand written to data entry or data entry miss-key stroking, poor question wording, response alternatives, question order, response rates [declining or 34-50% refusals] and population Identification [weighting]. This type of error could yield results that would appear unbalanced as representative of the sample.  The researcher can attempt to correct for this problem by creating a mathematical discounting of increasing percentage for adding or reducing the calculated values and results [weighing] based on unrepresented or over represented variables (Daniel Shea and Michael Burton, Pg. 105, 2001; Daniel Coffey, CM-I, 2006).

(2). Statistical Errors/Sampling Errors is the difference in uniqueness of sample size and the overall population the sample stands for, [the key to polling accuracy is the principle of "equal probability of selection'' says Arianna Huffington]  "But if larger and larger numbers among those randomly selected refuse to participate, this principle no longer applies" (Daves 2000, 219).  Some measure of sampling error should be allowed.  If these samples are carefully selected then the measure of these errors can be determined.  The researcher can attempt to correct this problem by conducting repeated samples to draw a determination as to an allotted measure of accuracy through redundancy (Daniel Shea and Michael Burton, Pg. 105, 2001; Daniel Coffey, CM-I, 2006).

(3). Specification Errors could result from socially desirability responses by participants being surveyed with the need to say something socially acceptable [like the polling differentials being allotted for surveyed voters that will not openly say "I will not vote for a Black person"].  The researcher can attempt to correct for this problem by creating similar or reworded questions that should have the same results or answers by respondents (Daniel Coffey, CM-I, 2006).

(4). Instrument Errors/Sequence of polling questions Errors is when poorly constructed questionnaires resulted in data that may not correctly reflect the public attitudes. This error causes a respondent bias by the wording of the questionnaire that maybe leading or misleading.  The researcher can attempt to correct for this problem by performing trial questionnaires on smaller groups with the objective of examining questions and question sequence prior to the actual research project (Daniel Shea and Michael Burton, Pg. 104, 2001; Daniel Coffey, CM-I, 2006).


QUESTION 3)Which party will control congress after the November midterm elections? Based on what you have learned in this class, explain why you think Democrats or Republicans will hold/take control of Congress. What should each party's strategy be?

In my opinion and based on what I have leaned in this class, the Republican Party should retain control of congress.  I would take this position only because of the Republican dominated gerrymandering and redistricting of congressional districts across the nation.  Also the proven ability of the Republican Party to turn out its constituency base in past elections maybe able to alter this midterm results (Daniel Coffey, CM-I, 2006).

On the other hand and being more reflective of today's political climate the Democratic Party seems positioned to acquirer more congressional seats than they had expected.  This midterm election has gone from an anti-Bush to an anti-Republican election cycle.  This transformation has moved quickly through all ranks of political concerns.  Not only the issue with Congressman Foley's conduct but more defining issues referencing that the Republican party has no new or improved ideas to help the country out of the Iraq war.  Much of print and broadcast media advertising by the Republicans are rehashes of old restatements directed at creating a fearful American state of mind.  Obviously the nation is not responding to these old tactics.  It seems that the public is knowledgeable enough with regard to governmental function and structure not to be made skeptical of possible Democratic Party rule.

As in all elections, all bets are on the table when it comes to winning elections.  The Republican Party has experienced a ton of bad news this election cycle but they can win and retain their congressional dominance.  One suggestion for a winning Republican Strategy is to concentrate solely on the party's strong points; "Party Base Turn Out on Election Day" These turn out efforts should press all ideological and party obligation buttons available to the Republican Party in mobilizing it's base.  The Republican Party members can be a very closely netted group if they are simply told to do so by their political party leaders.

The Democratic strategy for this midterm election should be laden with continued and heavy media poundings of Republican ills and misfortunes.  The Democrat's media attacks should be straight forward with an appearance to embarrass the Republicans and to ingrain the atmosphere of mistrust to the undecided and independent voters.  If this strategy has some level of back fire this cycle, it will however have a great defining power set up for the 2008 election year cycle.  At this point the Democrat Party has nothing to loose and near everything to gain in growing their voter base. 

 
Essay;

QUESTION 1) Can money buy an electoral victory? In answering this general question, consider the following: Why is fundraising so important for candidates? What constraints do incumbents and challengers face in raising and spending money? Where can a candidate seek donations, and why does this tend to favor the incumbent? Finally, what effect have recent changes in campaign finance law had on the importance of money in the electoral process?
(Please look closely at the Shea and Burton chapters as well as Green's chapter in the Electoral Challenge).

Money cannot buy an election victory.  However, money can buy the things that will win elections (Hanson, CF 2006). Money can buy TV, radio, print and internet advertising.  Money can buy professional consulting services, polling /survey reports, paid campaign help and all other facets for political electioneering needs.  Money can be used to deter political opponents from running your against you (Hanson, CF 2006).   Money can be used as donations to politically friendly social groups and causes in exchange for endorsements (Hanson, CF 2006).  Money has been credited with the ability to change the behavior of the voter (John Green 2006).  Money matters differently from one candidate to another and its effect wavers with electoral conditions.  Money has its greatest value as a challenger in acquiring an elected office and has a less value in retaining control of an elected position (John Green 2006, 58).

"First, that money matters in campaigns the same way it does in the marketplace, namely, the more candidates spend, the more votes they receive.  Second, building on the market analogy, that the candidate who spends the most in a campaign is most likely to win the election.  And third, that the level of spending is equally important for gaining and then subsequently maintaining control of elective public office" (Jacobson 1980; Green and Krasno 1988; Erikson and Palfrey 1998). 

New Style political campaigning as well as campaigns in transition from the old to the new style is burdened with the need to raise lots of money quickly (Daniel Shea and Michael Burton, Pg. 133, 2001).  The present day political climate demands that political candidates not only seek to be competitive but they must take steps to surpass their competition.  "Old style campaigns relied on endorsements and volunteers" (Daniel Shea and Michael Burton, 2001).  These two important campaign factors are still needed; however paid workers have replaced the sometimes unreliable volunteers in some cases.  Campaign endorsements are also very valuable especially for fundraising activities (Daniel Shea and Michael Burton, 2001).  High profile and well respected names of individuals on the candidates fundraising letterhead can be great for using when asking for campaign donations (Hanson, CF 2006).    In some instances the endorsing individuals will supply the campaign team with a list of potential donors. 

The fundraising constraints on the incumbent are much more demanding than that of the challenger.  The incumbent would be forced to closely critique all donations to guard against conflicts with any entity/individual that is presently doing business with the governmental division he represents.  Whereas the challenger may almost freely accept any contributions with the option to claim a defense of plausible deniability with regard to the questionable campaign donor and return the donation after the fact if need be.  Spending constraints facing the challenger will be tied primarily to his/her ability to raise campaign funds.  Some researchers have indicated that the challenger's ability to spend more may often suggest the competitiveness of an election.  "Jacobson has said that, The incumbency advantage depends not so much on what incumbents do, but on what potential opponents do" (Jacobson ,1997, 37).  As to the spending constraints of the incumbent, much of which would flow outward quite modestly [in consideration of ideas that diminished returns for increased votes for dollars spent because of being the safe incumbent does not need to spend more money, 98% chance to retain incumbency] (Hanson, CF 2006).  However if a challenger poses a serious threat the incumbent will spend more money for media buys. "Herrnson's careful study of electoral success shows that challengers are more likely to win when incumbents spend a lot of money on campaign communications (Herrnson, 2000, 232).

Candidates can seek donations from the following sources; By creating a friends, relatives, acquaintances, neighbors and kids [aka FRANK List] (Hanson, CF 2006).  The incumbent has the fundraising advantage over the challenger because election history shows that the incumbent usually prevails.  In addition, organizations seeking to promote their agendas will donate to the projected winner instead of taking the chance of losing with no reward for backing the challenger.  "Most PACs are not a bit interested in supporting people they don't think will win" (Luntz 1988, 178).  The incumbent will often have more fundraising experience because they have raised money in their previous election.  The incumbent would have had the advantage of discussing fundraising methods and ideas with other officeholders (Daniel Shea and Michael Burton, 2001).  A great advantage to the incumbent would be to start the new campaign with money that was left over from the previous campaign, thus giving him a strong staring appearance to attract new money.  The incumbent is armed with a reliable list of contributors and has had time to refine their fundraising operation (Daniel Shea and Michael Burton, 2001). 
      
The main effect of the most recent campaign finance law [2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act] was the banning of Soft Money Donations in all forms to political parties.  This congressional act only allowed [excluding Levin Soft Money] Hard Money Donations with donation limits to federal campaigns (Hanson, CF 2006). The importance of money to political campaigns has not changed, it still remains essential to raise lots of money in the electoral process.  However, individual donations of Hard Money by donors have taken on an appearance of multi level marketing structures coupled with social networking functions (Hanson, CF 2006).   
 

QUESTION 2). Given the list of the following counties in Ohio, which districts to should each party target in this years gubernatorial election, between Ted Strickland (D) and Kenneth Blackwell (R)? Explain your reasoning and be specific. There is no correct answer; I am most interested in your reasoning. Please limit responses to 3-4 pages; 50 points.

*The districts that should be targeted by Ken Blackwell (R) are Delaware, Franklin, Hamilton, Ashtabula and Montgomery Counties.

My approach was to look at and compare [Apples to Apples model] previous Mid Term Elections 1998 & 2002 GOP Vote percentages for Taft.  The notion of playing to your [party's] strength is more identifiable and would indicate where friendly territory is in order to create the initial campaign spark with a grass roots momentum and fundraiser opportunities.  The higher GOP Vote percentages for Taft in '98 and '02 [a somewhat unpopular Governor] points directly to party member loyalties.  GOP vote percentage for Taft ranged from a low of 47.30% to a high point of 71.94%.

*The districts that should be targeted by Ted Strickland (D) are Cuyahoga, Lorain, Summit and Mahoning Counties.

The Ted Strickland campaign is served better by stumping in areas where Taft faired poorly during the previous Mid Term Elections.  Strickland's campaign would have been received more favorability for grass root and fundraising efforts.   GOP vote percentage for Taft in these counties ranged from a low of 37.70% to a high point of 47.69% for '98 and '02 Mid Term Elections.

The most unfortunate thing about this particular election is the poor political advice that Mr. Blackwell received during his campaign.  In my opinion, regardless of the GOP percentage of votes captured in previous elections, Mr. Blackwell would have been well served to have persuaded his "Perceived Political Base" first.  His Perceived Political Base is the Black Constituents of Ohio.  If Mr. Blackwell would have taken his political messages and appeal for votes directly to the core street levels of the Black Communities first, that would have given him the insulation from criticisms he is now facing.  Mr. Blackwell and his campaign were not aware that the Black Church community is only viewed as Symbolic in terms of political acceptance with regards to the whole of the Black population. 

Mr. Blackwell's bid to become the Ohio Governor should be used a model for all Black Politicians.  Mr. Blackwell had done all of the right things to position himself as a leader and powerful political candidate.  He could raise big money, he has hob knobbed with the elites of America, he was even considered to be a very smart man.  However, [as my wife puts it] when he decided to run for "The Big Boy Seat" the political establishment cut him down to size.  It was all because Mr. Blackwell had no real [Perceived] political base.  Mr. Blackwell's Actual political base was the Conservative Wing of the Republican Party but this base proved to be fluid once they became aware that his Perceived base did not support him.  This afforded his Conservative supporters the excuse to abandon him and save face with no concerns of retributions from the Black population, religious or otherwise.  The moral story of his campaign is that; if you are a Black Politician you are expected to take your campaign to the street level core of the Black community to gain acceptance and to create the Buzz of Approval for use on all other levels of American society.  Any Black politician that attempts to avoid this process can be expected to be defeated at the big race.  This statement is based on my political view only.       

County   Republican Vote   1998*
(Taft)   2000
(Dewine)   2002*
(Taft)   2004
(Voinovich)
Cuyahoga   GOP %   37.93   41.33%   37.70d   52.44%
   Votes Cast   409,101   586,914
   378,952
   637,303

Delaware   GOP %   63.07   68.43%
   71.94r   77.00
   Votes Cast   34,502
   55,959
   39,199   77,823

Franklin   GOP %   49.36   52.22%
   56.57r   59.67%

   Votes Cast   293,687
   417,800
   277,002
   495,389

Hamilton   GOP %   59.19   58.28%
   65.84r   62.69%

   Votes Cast   282,876
   384,336
   243,345   407,431

Lorain   GOP %   43.55   52.84%   47.69d
   58.05%

   Votes Cast   77,650
   114,480
   78,466   136,921

Montgomery   GOP %   47.30   53.45%   59.45r   62.46%
   Votes Cast   161,850
   237,580
   161,283   273,676

Summit   GOP %   45.78   52.59%   47.31d
   56.91%

   Votes Cast   157,277
   232,252
   159,246   270,428

Mahoning   GOP %   37.72   43.26%   46.15d   58.05%

   Votes Cast   80,645
   116,889
   87,000   127,958

Ashtabula   GOP %   49.58   53.56%
   54.12r   58.59%

   Votes Cast   28,917
   40,378
   27,395
   44,376