Do Polls Really Matter

[ytowner]

The liberal media says Dems are outnumbering those in early voting 2 to 1.

But in Nevada and Florida, polls of early voters give Obama a 2-3 point edge respectively.

[AllanY2525]

I don't tend to put to much weight on political polls, because there
are so many factors that can skew them.  I don't think that all of them are deliberately "oversampling democrats", (or Rebuplicans either, for that matter).  BUT -  when a poll makes telephone calls
to specific geographic areas, there are bound to be errors. 

For instance:

What if the poll being conducted is calling an area that predominately
leans to one party?  Sheer odds would dictate that the poll would
show results favoring that party.

In cases where the poll being conducted has a large margin of
error, and the region being polled already shows a tight race
between the candidates, the error margin itself shows that EITHER
candidate could be the one who is ahead of the other, depending
on whether you choose the "plus" or the "minus" value of the
margin of error.

Now, I watched a news report just a half hour ago that was saying
over 20 million American citizens have already cast their votes
via early voting mechanisms in various states - a more accurate
poll could probably be formulated using these actual, REAL votes.

Basically, my belief is that we won't know "until we know".  In other
words, let's all wait for election night - when the most accurate
poll of all will take place - the vote of the American People across
the entire nation.

HAPPY HALLOWEEN EVERYONE

[ytowner]

The polls are oversampling Democrats, enough said.

[Towntalk]

With just 4 days left before the election I pose this question: How have the hundreds of polls that the news media have been touting over and over again influenced your decision?

Before you answer, go to my blog Reporters Notebook Blog and take a look at the two latest posts. Even the very media that has lived and died by polls is questioning them.

http://reporters.notebook.angelfire.com/reporters-notebook/