Voter TARGETING BY DEMOGRAPHICS

[Frank Bellamy, MAP Masters of Applied Politics]

TARGETING BY DEMOGRAPHICS



I. SWING VOTER FORMULA:
A.   Calculations: Swing voter formula.  Pick a target year and analyze data and identify the high candidate with the most percentage (county auditor in example)
B.   Then pick the lowest vote getter
C.   Then subtract the high from the low and you have your swing vote percentage.
D.   That figure sets a benchmark
E.   Any ward that's higher than that difference then it's a swing ward
F.   Must use the same high/low candidates across all wards
G.   The more below the percentage relative to the candidate your focusing on, the greater the ward is an electorate for the other party

II. DEMOGRAPHICS
-   Always argue from the general to the specific
-   If you want to understand voting behavior, then look at history of state, district, or precinct.
RACE
   -African American Voters
      Role of slavery and the church
      Generalization that

   -Hispanic
      Newcomers to the country
      Close knit family units
      Largely Catholic
      Sensitive to immigration and language issues
UNIONS
   -Upton Sinclair's "The Jungle"
   -Notion is if we all leave these horrible conditions then they will listen to us
   -As the unions grew, members started demanding more from the corporations
   -Generalization grew that unions became more about getting paid for less work
   -Membership is decreasing
   -Often a gap between union management and its members
   -Since union members no longer reside in one ward, you must contact through
mail, phone and other means
GENDER
   -Male and females are different, even at birth
   -Prof does not believe the notion that there are women's issues
   -Difficult to target genders
   -Target approaches to each gender
   -Perform focus groups for each
   -Usually not gender that the issue but the other factors such as economics, marital
status

SEXUAL ORIENATION
   -Gay population should not be ignored

MARITAL STATUS
   -Become more conservative as you get older
   -Hard group to target
SOCIOECONOMIC STATUTS
   -Higher income voters tend to vote Republican
   -Lower income tend to vote Democrat
   -Education
RELIGION
   -Read the Twelve tribes (testable material)
   -Identifies the religious right
   -Jews
   -Catholics
   -Christians
   -Muslims