Global warming emissions growing faster than expected

[irishbobcat]

Global warming emissions growing faster than expected

Analysts Warn Emissions Are Growing
James Kanter |  New York Times |  01.26.2009
Planet-warming emissions from industry are on track to grow faster than previous estimates, and delaying reduction measures beyond 2010 would risk triggering dangerous levels of climate change, according to McKinsey & Company, a leading consultancy.

The findings by McKinsey, which are expected to be unveiled on Monday afternoon in Brussels, appear to reinforce the view of some leading scientists and economists that failing to take action now to reduce emissions could badly hobble economic growth in the future.

"Emissions are growing faster than we thought a few years back," said Per-Anders Enkvist one of the authors of the study, which is entitled "Pathways to a Law Carbon Economy."

Delaying action by 10 years would almost certainly push temperatures higher than 2 degrees Celsius — the level many environmental groups have identified as the maximum allowable before widespread irreversible environmental damage kicks in — according to McKinsey.

Mr. Enkvist also said it was unlikely that "the current financial crisis will have a major impact" on changing that pattern of emissions growth from sources like coal-fired power stations, cars, and chemical and cement manufacturing. Growth in China and India were major factors driving the trend, he said.

In the last study of its kind in 2006, the group estimated that total emissions would be 60 gigatons each year by 2030 if current practices went unchanged. Now, said Mr. Enkvist, that amount is likely to be 70 gigatons without changes.

Even so, Mr. Enkvist said there were important gains to be had from redoubling efforts to roll out new infrastructure like energy-efficient buildings and more efficient and cleaner factories, cars and power plants.

Doing that sooner rather than later still could prevent some of the worst-case scenarios, particularly in areas of the world where economies are expanding, he said.

"It's when you grow that you have the cheaper abatement opportunities," said Mr. Enkvist. "In other words, it's when you build new — that's when you can do something cheaply about emissions," he said.

Energy companies like Vattenfall, Shell and Enel supported McKinsey with expertise and helped to fund the study.

Envkist said his estimates of how much the transformation would cost were between 200 billion and 350 billion euros — or roughly $260 billon to $450 billion — per year by 2030. That's around 0.5 percent of global output.

Mr. Enkvist said that still was roughly in line with estimates put forward by Nicholas Stern, the British economist and one of the foremost experts on the economics of climate change, earlier this decade.

An environmental group, WWF, said it disagreed with estimations by McKinsey about the cost of generating more electricity from nuclear power, saying those costs had been "underestimated."

WWF called for the use of technologies "which will protect the climate without the need for nuclear power."

Even so, James Leape, the director general of WWF, broadly supported McKinsey's findings and said the transformation envisioned by the study should be part of efforts to "invest in rebuilding the global economy" and "create jobs and stabilize the climate."

Many existing technologies and policies including recycling heat from electricity plants, using biomass to generate power and focusing on energy efficiency and low carbon production processes "make economic as well as environmental sense," said Mr. Leape.

Mr. Enkvist said that nuclear power made up about 5 percent of the total reduction potential in the model presented by McKinsey, and that nuclear power would make up about 16 percent of low-carbon energy supply by 2030.
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We need a coal moratorium by far the most important action that needs to be pursued.  Why?  Because coal is the dirtiest and most carbon-intensive of all fossil fuels.

At the same time, we've got to stop any new nuclear power plants.  Nuclear power is far too dangerous and expensive to play any role in our energy production.

Dennis Spisak
Mahoning Valley Green Party
Ohio Green Party

www.ohiogreens.org

www.votespisak.org/thinkgreen/